I would like to send a quick, intermediate update related to this event:
- it seems that using operational tools and approaches it was very difficult to predict this event
- the DRIHM team is working on several approaches, based on DRIHM modeling services, that show promise in terms of being able to accurately model this particular event and to gain a deeper understanding of the underlying physical processes
- However, considering the exceptional nature of the event in terms
of severity of the outcome, before we provide any more details we need
to review all the results at the highest possible level of scrutiny.
Meanwhile, for the convenience of the audience, please find herewith enclosed the raingauge-based quantitative precipitation estimate over the period 00-12UTC and 12-24UTC for 9 october 2014.
In order to appreciate the spatio-temporal evolution of the weather system responsible for this severe hydro-meteorological event, please have a look at the Cb-Tram tool (
portal.drihm.eu:8080/liferay-portal-6.1..../guest/cb-tram-model, registration needed)
Cb-TRAM analysis:
-- relevant times: 7:45 - 14:00 UTC
-- relevant times: 14:30 - 15:30 UTC
-- relevant times: 17:45 - 23:45 UTC
-- the Cb-TRAM nowcasting shows a northeastward or easward component, because the general flow is to the northeast or east, respectively. However,
the thunderstorm system generates itself again and again over Genoa. Therefore, the Cb cells detected by Cb-TRAM hardly move.